San Diego PadresatColorado Rockies
Thu, Sep 17, 12:40 AM UTC · Venue TBD · Season 2026
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
SD 4.8 — COL 4.4
Win probability
SD 55%
Model confidence
Low
Baseline projection from season win rate and home advantage. Statistical estimate, not a guaranteed outcome.
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
Loading historical accuracy…
Market prices
Best available American price across US sportsbooks, updated 28 minutes ago.
-166
FanDuel
+151
LowVig.ag
-1.5 (-111)
MyBookie.ag
+1.5 (-102)
LowVig.ag
O 11 (+100)
BetMGM
U 11 (-109)
LowVig.ag
Implied chance
SD 62% · COL 40%
Versus EdgeIQ
EdgeIQ's estimate is 6.3 points higher on COL than the margin-free market number (39% on COL).
Prices are shown for reference only and move constantly. EdgeIQ is an analytics service, takes no wagers and offers no prices of its own.
Compare with an outside price
Enter the moneyline prices you have seen elsewhere. EdgeIQ converts them into a plain chance of winning, strips out the operator's built-in margin, and shows how that compares with the model estimate. EdgeIQ does not take wagers and shows no prices of its own.
| Team | Your price | Market chance | EdgeIQ chance | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | -166 | 61% | 55% | -6.3 pts |
| COL | +151 | 39% | 45% | +6.3 pts |
Margin in those prices
2%
Model price · SD
-121
Model price · COL
+121
A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Factor breakdown is unavailable for this game.
Team comparison
SD (left) versus COL (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
San Diego Padres
- Last 5
- 2-3
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 4.0
- Avg allowed
- 4.8
- Streak
- L3
Colorado Rockies
- Last 5
- 2-3
- Last 10
- 3-7
- Avg scored
- 4.6
- Avg allowed
- 6.4
- Streak
- W1
Historical matchup
COL 4 — 3 SD
Sample size: 7 games
Head-to-head history is context, not prediction — rosters, coaching and circumstances change between meetings.
Player availability
San Diego Padres
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
Colorado Rockies
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
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