Baltimore OriolesatNew York Mets
Wed, Sep 16, 11:10 PM UTC · Venue TBD · Season 2026
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
BAL 4.5 — NYM 4.7
Win probability
NYM 52%
Model confidence
Low
Baseline projection from season win rate and home advantage. Statistical estimate, not a guaranteed outcome.
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
Loading historical accuracy…
Market prices
Best available American price across US sportsbooks, updated 11 minutes ago.
-1800
Bovada
+1000
FanDuel
-4.5 (-120)
BetRivers
+4.5 (+110)
MyBookie.ag
O 11.5 (+110)
BetMGM
U 11.5 (-110)
Bovada
Implied chance
BAL 95% · NYM 9%
Versus EdgeIQ
EdgeIQ's estimate is 43.2 points higher on NYM than the margin-free market number (9% on NYM).
Prices are shown for reference only and move constantly. EdgeIQ is an analytics service, takes no wagers and offers no prices of its own.
Compare with an outside price
Enter the moneyline prices you have seen elsewhere. EdgeIQ converts them into a plain chance of winning, strips out the operator's built-in margin, and shows how that compares with the model estimate. EdgeIQ does not take wagers and shows no prices of its own.
| Team | Your price | Market chance | EdgeIQ chance | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | -1800 | 91% | 48% | -43.2 pts |
| NYM | +1000 | 9% | 52% | +43.2 pts |
Margin in those prices
4%
Model price · BAL
+108
Model price · NYM
-108
A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Factor breakdown is unavailable for this game.
Team comparison
BAL (left) versus NYM (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Recent form
Baltimore Orioles
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 4.5
- Avg allowed
- 3.9
- Streak
- L2
New York Mets
- Last 5
- 2-3
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 4.9
- Avg allowed
- 5.8
- Streak
- L1
Historical matchup
NYM 2 — 1 BAL
Sample size: 3 games
This is a very small sample. Head-to-head history carries little weight on its own, especially when rosters, coaching or circumstances have changed.
Player availability
Baltimore Orioles
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
New York Mets
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
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