Pittsburgh SteelersatNew England Patriots
Sun, Sep 20, 5:00 PM UTC · Gillette Stadium · Season 2026
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
PIT 25.2 — NE 20.8
Win probability
PIT 71%
Model confidence
High
Baseline projection from season win rate and home advantage. Statistical estimate, not a guaranteed outcome.
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
Loading historical accuracy…
Market prices
Best available American price across US sportsbooks, updated 28 minutes ago.
+205
FanDuel
-218
DraftKings
+5 (-105)
LowVig.ag
-5 (-105)
LowVig.ag
O 41.5 (-107)
LowVig.ag
U 41.5 (-107)
LowVig.ag
Implied chance
PIT 33% · NE 69%
Versus EdgeIQ
EdgeIQ's estimate is 38.5 points higher on PIT than the margin-free market number (68% on NE).
Prices are shown for reference only and move constantly. EdgeIQ is an analytics service, takes no wagers and offers no prices of its own.
Compare with an outside price
Enter the moneyline prices you have seen elsewhere. EdgeIQ converts them into a plain chance of winning, strips out the operator's built-in margin, and shows how that compares with the model estimate. EdgeIQ does not take wagers and shows no prices of its own.
| Team | Your price | Market chance | EdgeIQ chance | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | +205 | 32% | 71% | +38.5 pts |
| NE | -218 | 68% | 29% | -38.5 pts |
Margin in those prices
1%
Model price · PIT
-243
Model price · NE
+243
A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Factor breakdown is unavailable for this game.
Team comparison
PIT (left) versus NE (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
Your plan: Free · Unlocks with Pro — $9.99/month
Recent form
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Last 5
- 2-3
- Last 10
- 3-7
- Avg scored
- 17.3
- Avg allowed
- 21.8
- Streak
- W1
New England Patriots
- Last 5
- 2-3
- Last 10
- 2-8
- Avg scored
- 16.7
- Avg allowed
- 25.3
- Streak
- L2
Historical matchup
These teams have no completed head-to-head games in the EdgeIQ database.
This is a very small sample. Head-to-head history carries little weight on its own, especially when rosters, coaching or circumstances have changed.
Player availability
Pittsburgh Steelers
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
New England Patriots
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
EdgeIQ AI
Sign in to ask EdgeIQ AI about this matchup. Free accounts include 5 AI requests per month.
Sign in to askYour hypothetical prediction
Paper predictions only — EdgeIQ never involves money, wagers or payouts.
Sign in to track a prediction