Jacksonville JaguarsatDenver Broncos
Sun, Sep 20, 8:05 PM UTC · Empower Field at Mile High · Season 2026
EdgeIQ projection
Projected score
JAX 25.2 — DEN 20.8
Win probability
JAX 71%
Model confidence
High
Baseline projection from season win rate and home advantage. Statistical estimate, not a guaranteed outcome.
This is a model-generated statistical projection based on historical data. It expresses uncertainty, not a guaranteed outcome.
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Market prices
Best available American price across US sportsbooks, updated 11 minutes ago.
+134
BetUS
-145
Bovada
+2.5 (+107)
LowVig.ag
-2.5 (-115)
MyBookie.ag
O 45.5 (-105)
FanDuel
U 45.5 (-107)
LowVig.ag
Implied chance
JAX 43% · DEN 59%
Versus EdgeIQ
EdgeIQ's estimate is 28.9 points higher on JAX than the margin-free market number (58% on DEN).
Prices are shown for reference only and move constantly. EdgeIQ is an analytics service, takes no wagers and offers no prices of its own.
Compare with an outside price
Enter the moneyline prices you have seen elsewhere. EdgeIQ converts them into a plain chance of winning, strips out the operator's built-in margin, and shows how that compares with the model estimate. EdgeIQ does not take wagers and shows no prices of its own.
| Team | Your price | Market chance | EdgeIQ chance | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | +134 | 42% | 71% | +28.9 pts |
| DEN | -145 | 58% | 29% | -28.9 pts |
Margin in those prices
2%
Model price · JAX
-243
Model price · DEN
+243
A difference in EdgeIQ's favour means the model rates that side higher than the price does. It is a statistical estimate carrying real uncertainty, never a guaranteed outcome, and the model's own historical accuracy is shown below.
Key factors
Factor breakdown is unavailable for this game.
Team comparison
JAX (left) versus DEN (right), last 10 completed games.
Advanced matchup analytics
Home and away splits, scoring and defensive trends over the last 10 games, rest days and the extended head-to-head log for this matchup.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
- Last 5
- 3-2
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 20.6
- Avg allowed
- 18.3
- Streak
- W2
Denver Broncos
- Last 5
- 2-3
- Last 10
- 5-5
- Avg scored
- 25.2
- Avg allowed
- 21.7
- Streak
- L1
Historical matchup
These teams have no completed head-to-head games in the EdgeIQ database.
This is a very small sample. Head-to-head history carries little weight on its own, especially when rosters, coaching or circumstances have changed.
Player availability
Jacksonville Jaguars
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
Denver Broncos
Availability data is unavailable for this team.
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